Since October, the domestic plate market price drop in a row to fall, the fall, then this market would also like to wave or how long the price at the bottom of where the trend of how the market outlook?
In the industry specializing in trade panel on these issues to explore that, in July this year, -9, the steel market has been moving Sasser, prices have continued to decline into October, the decline has not only weakened, but also in the growing container board , Boiler plate prices from mid-September of 8050 yuan / ton, down to the current 7200 yuan / ton, S & P board price from 6,000 yuan / ton now fallen to 3300 yuan / ton, the price of hot roll has fallen to 3280 yuan / Tons, but still no signs stabilized.
This wave of steel industry market prices frequent cause of the crash of an in-depth, comprehensive study, that there are many causes, including the entire domestic and international macro-economic impact of environmental change, the global financial crisis ; Have downstream end of the industry downturn, reduced demand for steel; steel mills have reduced prices, driven spot market prices; traders have a panic sell-off price; and so on. The combined effect of these factors, the market prices of steel products to fall, a time to stop the momentum of decline.
Plate in the late wave of market potential to stabilize stabilized, a slight rebound in the market, based on:
First, the market price has been close to the plate at the bottom, there is not much space to continue to decline. This is a plate of the market price drop in a row is rare in recent years, the S & P plate prices have fallen by a total of more than 1000 yuan / ton, hot and cold plate prices fall in the 1500-2000 yuan / ton, the current electronic trading market January 2009 volume heat only long-term price of 3070-3080 yuan / ton. This decline has hit bottom, have been less likely to fall again, "bottom bounce", is not far off.
Second, traders cash shortage of resources for the latter part of the market to create conditions for a rebound. From the research point of view, the current market standard thickness is running out of resources, such as the S & P's four-edge panels, 40mm, 50mm, 60mm, 70mm, 80mm, 90mm, 100mm, 110mm, and so on, 2.2 meters wide of the plate are Rarely seen, because a lot of pre-production of steel in a large number of Ship, the S & P board of not more than the middle row, together with the price of the "upside down", traders do not have orders to steel mills, in particular the first-line production of steel plate And more scarce, on the market today are second and third line of steel products, such products can not be maintained and some mechanical properties, key projects can not be used. Therefore, the latter part of the market's specifications & P thick plate and low-alloy plate once the demand for the release, and subsequent price rebound, especially the first line of steel products, the market will be good.
Third, iron and steel raw material prices limited space, have also stabilized rebound. This round of the steel market prices quickly fell sharply, iron and steel raw materials markets to keep down the price of iron ore, pig iron, waste steel, coke, iron alloy, and so the prices have dropped significantly, the price of scrap has broken the 1700 yuan / ton, the highest this year A new low, and then continue down the space of a few, many engaged in processing scrap recycling operators to operate at a loss, and some to stop recycling and processing. From this point of view, iron and steel raw materials market will go up again, driven steel prices rebound.
Fourth, the traders operating at a loss, the more unbearable loss. In this round of the sharp fall in steel prices, a number of steel traders are at a loss, and some steel amounted to a loss of more than 1000 yuan, achieved in the first half of the profits of the steel in the crash, they lost on some steel trade The company even a huge loss, in which case, traders eager to think up and refuse to re-price sales. Last week, some steel companies not to offer trade, and some sales if the morning, afternoon Feng Pan, to suspend sales, will try for the second day of offer 50 yuan / ton, the absence of sales, down 30-50 million / T, which are businesses that do not want to continue selling prices, panic selling is changing phenomenon.
Five steel production is limited to the middle class to save the market price effect in the market outlook will gradually appear. In response to the market price of steel down the situation frequently, a number of domestic steel production have been limited to production, to stabilize the market, some steel maintenance arrangements, and some simply steel production, such as steel mills in Hebei region has limited production in the middle 20% -30%, and some even reached 50%; in the Sichuan region, a number of steel production have been self-up a "limited production prices," Chao; Shougang, Jinan Iron and Steel, Anyang Iron and Steel, and other major follow-up also limit production By as much as 20%. Baoshan Iron and Steel Group, said that over the next three months production is expected to 1,000,000 tons. At present, "the middle class limit price" set off a global wave, 4 quarter of the world's steel production will be cut by 20%. From the American Iron and Steel Institute data show that in the near future on the North American steel industry capacity utilization has dropped to 78% since the end of 2006 to its lowest level since. The global steel "production limit price" surge, the effect is not obvious, but in the late necessarily be reflected in the market, the shortage of resources, shortage may be the stage again, when the market price of steel is bound to rebound.
The industry believes that the above-mentioned factors, are in favor of the latter part of the market to stabilize prices stabilized, not to mention the cost of steel has been at the bottom line, the basic cost of close to the bottom line, and then drop a small space. Manufacturers, merchants do not want to continue the price.
Analysis of the industry through research, in the view that by the end of October or in November, the domestic market price sheet will be a wave of market rebound, the recovery rate of about 300-400 yuan / ton, not too much, but this wave of market rebound is not simply Inversion of the only stage of recovery. Steel City as a whole the market again reversed, the decision on the country's macro-control policy of stimulating domestic demand, the strength and steel market supply and demand change.
The steel trade business, the important thing is to establish confidence in the fall, do not despair, panic selling price, but to the stability of mind, to adjust business strategy to enhance resilience in the ability to find opportunities to get more of the same Operational efficiency.